The 49ers cannot win a championship.
The reason they will not win a championship is very simple:Alex Smith is not winning a Super Bowl. Tell me I am wrong. Tell me this guy can go all the way in the era of ZOMG! Throw it all over the yard football.I can already hear the counter argument. But what about last year? The 49ers were Kyle Williams fumbles away from playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Right, the same game where Smith went 12-26.
What has Smith done in the playoffs? He beat a group of jamokes known as the New Orleans defense. That’s it, big deal.
This is the same first overall pick bust who took seven years to get the 49ers into the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh is a great coach, but he does not have some magical fairy dust to make Smith a better quarterback. Hell, just look at what has happened over the last year and Harbaugh’s actions will tell you he agrees with me.
It started in the offseason. Harbaugh and the 49ers invited Peyton Manning to workout for an “evaluation,” as the coach called it. There were serious enough discussions that Manning felt the need to call Harbaugh and tell him he was joining Denver and not San Francisco. I don’t blame the 49ers for taking a look at Manning. He was exactly what they needed to get to that elite level. If Smith was really their guy, they never reach out to Manning.
If Smith is really their guy why did they draft Colin Kaepernick in the second round last year? Why is Kaepernick getting reps in the red zone? Harbaugh knows what many of us know, that the 49ers are not winning a title with tiny-hands Smith running the show.
Last night confirmed this for me, even in a win. Smith was 14-23 for 140 yards. About 60 of those yards came on their touchdown drive that consisted of nothing but check downs to the backs. When the 49ers could have iced it, Smith threw a ridiculously bad interception in the end zone. He kept the Seahawks in it and cost 49ers backers across the nation a win.
The 49ers defense is fantastic. Frank Gore is a beast. But eventually Smith is going to have to make a play and that is when San Francisco will fall short again.
But that is not why you clicked.
We have a four-week streak of making money in college. I will continue to make NFL picks, but I am not telling you to go to the window with them.
Overall: 20-23 (4-3 last week)
NCAA: 13-10 (3-2 last week)
LSU -3 @ Texas A&M
Les Miles and company cost me a monster week two weeks ago when they laid an egg in Florida. It is baffling how they can recruit the most dominant defensive players in the country and cannot run a competent offense. They found a running game last week however, in the form of freshman running back Jeremy Hill. Hill had 124 yards and two scores in the win against South Carolina. A&M is giving up 400 yards of offense and is getting its first taste of real SEC football. Not a broken-down Arkansas or Ole Miss, but real SEC football. LSU rolls on the road.
Virginia Tech +8 @ Clemson
Tech has been brutal this year. They spotted Duke 20 points last week, but came back and put up 41 unanswered. This feels like the time of the year where Virginia Tech surprises someone and Clemson stumbles. They happen to be colliding at just the right time. Clemson’s defense is giving up 446 yards a game and will not allow this game to get out of hand. Virginia Tech hangs around and may just win straight up.
Michigan State +10 (Buy the hook) @ Michigan
Denard Robinson has never beaten Sparty. I pegged this game at about 6.5 when guessing the lines this week and was surprised to see it open at 10. It’s down to 9.5 so I am buying the hook, but I think I’d still feel good at +7. The Spartans are offensively challenged for sure, but their defense has been in there with Robinson before and handled him. Michigan is getting a little too much love for not accomplishing anything. They beat Illinois and Purdue, congratulations.
TCU +1.5 vs Texas Tech
Tough game for the Raiders coming off an upset blowout of the fighting Geno Smiths of West Virginia. A rough sandwich game for Tech between West Virginia and going to Kansas State next week. Two very good defenses will be on the field and I will take the home team getting points. TCU handled Baylor last week (as predicted in Gamblers Phenomynous Week 6) and will pull out a victory here.
Notre Dame -13 vs BYU
Some will say this is a classic letdown spot for the Irish. Coming off an emotional win in overtime against Stanford with a trip to Norman, Oklahoma next, this would be a prime candidate for a letdown, but not in year three of Brian Kelly! In year three of Brian Kelly there are no letdowns. This is a Top 5 BCS team. They can’t afford any letdowns. The defense will dominate the Mormons and the offense just needs to get to 20 to cover.
NFL: 7-12 (1-1 last week)
Bears -6 vs Lions
Do not be fooled by the Lions’ win at Philadelphia. They are still the poorly-coached, undisciplined, one-dimensional offense with a horrible defense they were before they stole one in overtime. That game told us a lot more about the Eagles than the Lions. The Bears will do whatever they want on offense. Forte will get his and Cutler will get his as this smells like a 34-17 type of game.
Cardinals +7.5 @ Minnesota
That defense will hold the Vikings down. Will they hold them enough to stay within a touchdown? Sure, maybe, why not?