Gamblers Phenomynous: John Fox the Safe (and right) Bet

Bears fans with a negative reaction to the hiring of John Fox remind me of the blackjack player that has been on the wrong end shoe after shoe after shoe.

Lock of the WeekWe have all be there. Well we as in my fellow degenerates have been there. The dealer turns 15’s and 16’s into 20’s and 21’s. When he isn’t making 21’s he is showing a face card every single hand. It’s a horrible experience. It’s like taking a shot to the liver from Arturo Gatti.

Soon your play deteriorates. You are no longer playing by the book. Doubling down on nine, splitting cards that should never be split and upping your bets trying to win it all back in one hand. You take risks looking for the miracle that gets you back to even.

And you go broke.

Bears fans are in the same boat right now. They don’t want the safe bet in Fox, they want to double down on coaches they never heard of before they made the interview rounds the last two weeks. Some of these coordinators are going to turn into great coaches. Every great coach started on somebody else’s staff.

The reality though is most of them will be bad and fired.

The Bears already put a max bet on a wild card. He was a goof ball from Canada and he was a horrendous head coach. It makes me mad just to say the weirdo’s name I am not even going to write it down right now. The right call then was Bruce Arians, but Phil Emery played the long shot and is now picking up tickets off the ground, hoping someone dropped a winner.

Fox is a boring and safe play, but sometimes that is the right play. He will never be considered one of the “greats” and will always “just” be above average. He has had a top 10 defense in yards allowed seven out of his 13 seasons as head coach.

Fox has made the playoffs with Tim Tebow. Let me say that again. Fox made the playoffs with Tim Tebow.

Fox made it to a Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme. Let me say that again. Fox made it to the Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme.

That is a resume.

What is on these other candidates’ resumes?

Todd Bowles

At the age of 51, Bowles has three games of head coaching experience, kind of. He was the interim head coach for the Dolphins in 2011. He went 2-1 if you care. The majority of his career has been a secondary coach at various stops in the NFL. He has exactly one year of experience as defensive coordinator.

He might be good. I know John Fox is a good coach.

Doug Marrone

Marrone was the fourth favorite (8-1) to be fired first in 2014 according to Las Vegas entering this season. To be fair Jason Garret was the runaway favorite at 2-1. In two seasons with the Bills, Marrone went 15-17 before opting out of his contract at the end of the season. He made the jump from college with Chip Kelly and Bill O’Brien and some have said he might be the best of the bunch.

Maybe he will be that good. I know John Fox is a good coach.

Teryl Austin

Austin has one year of experience as an NFL defensive coordinator of the Lions in 2014. He has been defensive backs coach all over since 1993. The Lions defense were number one against the run and number two overall.

He could be a good coach, I know John Fox is is a good coach.

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to those three candidates Bears GM Ryan Pace interviewed before hiring Fox on Friday. They all are coming off great seasons, but they are still unknown. As much as I enjoy rolling the dice because there is always that potential, sometimes the safe bet is the best bet.

Fox is 119-89 in his 13 years as a head coach and that’s with a 2-14 record in his last year with a Panthers team that got old and bad. He is as proven as they come. He may have not won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning and the Star Wars offense, but he has been to two. That’s two more than everyone else on the Bears’ list of candidates.

It’s boring. It’s safe. And it’s right.

Now for some much less safe bets around the NFL and UFC this weekend.

NFL

Before I put in a couple of picks sure to be wrong. Today is the one year anniversary we lost one of our founders of Midway Madness. Mack wrote a great piece about his best friend last year and if you knew Chris Gasper here it is again.

Seahawks -7 vs Packers ( 1 unit)

Gas would have bet this. Rest In Power.

Seahawks vs Packers Under 47 ( 2 units)

Seattle has given up seven points or less in five out of the last six games. Aaron Rodgers is gimpy. No need to over think this one.

Colts +7 @ Patriots ( 1 unit)

We know the narrative. The Pats own the Colts. Luck has been a disaster so far in his young career when facing New England. I also know Luck is going to be the best quarterback in the NFL very soon. Why am I supposed to be so impressed the Pats squeaked by the Ravens with college trick plays? Colts might not win, but this is a field goal game.

Colts @ Patriots over 54 ( 1 unit)

How could this not be a shootout right? I am sure everyone and their mother is on this over, but with Brady and Luck how could you not be? Take my money.

UFC

Donald Cerrone +120 vs Benson Henderson (4 units)

I have many gambling rules in life, but damn near the top of the list is always back Donald Cerrone except when facing the ninja Anthony Pettis. If Cerrone was on a full training camp I might have made this one of my biggest MMA wagers ever. He is worlds better than the guy that lost to Bendo five years ago, but he is a crazy person and is taking a fight on two weeks notice.

@MidwayPat